The most interesting matches are – from the betting point of view – the ones that consist under or over performers – or even both.
It happens today in Kuopio, in a match between KuPS and MYPA.
KuPS have started their season rather poorly, and their performances have gone down all the time. They haven’t scored in their two latest match, and they have totally deserved it.
KuPS had hard times also last season. They suffered from injuries, and their coach Esa Pekonen had to change his tactical approach; this season KuPS are trying to keep the ball much more.
KuPS have already played many games this season: seven matches in three weeks. Well, that’s enough match practise, but at the moment their game looks poor. The injuries and suspensions have also caused some headache.
Even though KuPS are still learning their new tactics, we have seen glimpses of hope. KuPS should have beaten JJK in their season opening and also their performance against TPS wasn’t that bad.
MYPA have been this season’s surprise package: they have beaten already top teams like TPS and HJK, and their have lost only once – against strong FC Inter
MYPA play with their strenghts: they defend and try to counter attack when given chance. Also MYPA have had some injuries, but so far they have managed to deal with them: even though MYPA’s squad is pretty unknown, at least they have some width.
Both have some players missing, but the absences may hurt a bit more MYPA. KuPS will also get benefit from their artificial pitch, but they have also some pressure to grab the first win of the season.
Even though you have to be a bit sceptical about KuPS, they should be more clear favourites than the odds suggest.
My estimations:
KuPS - MYPA 54.0% 27.0% 19.0% | 1.85 3.70 5.26
ML: 1.35 3.84
-2.50: 7.34 1.16 | -2.25: 6.73 1.17
-2.00: 6.11 1.20 | -1.75: 4.17 1.32
-1.50: 3.30 1.43 | -1.25: 2.91 1.52
-1.00: 2.52 1.66 | -0.75: 2.09 1.92
-0.50: 1.85 2.17 | -0.25: 1.60 2.66
+0.25: 1.28 4.55 | +0.50: 1.23 5.26
O/U 2.5: 48.5% 51.5% | 2.06 1.94
O/U 2.00: 1.53 2.87
O/U 2.25: 1.80 2.26
O/U 2.75: 2.34 1.75
O/U 3.00: 2.83 1.55
O/U 3.25: 3.19 1.46
O/U 3.50: 3.56 1.39
KuPS -0.5 2.02 Pinnacle 4/10
KuPS – MYPA Over 2.25 1.90 Sbobet 2/10
